Predictions

Interactive Prediction Model

Enter the two solution words for a KEALOA round. The model will predict each correct answer using Bayesian inference, and you enter the actual results to see how well it performs.

Loading model data\u2026

Probability of each answer word given the previous answer and the running balance between the two answer words. Uses Bayesian inference with Laplace smoothing.

Model Simulation

Results of replaying all rounds using the model to predict each answer. The model always picks the most probable answer.

75 Rounds
743 Clues
450 Correct
61% Accuracy

Previous Answer: Answer 1

Balance Answer 1 Answer 2 Count
Start 62% 38% 75
Answer 2 leads by 7 67% 33% 1
Answer 2 leads by 4 67% 33% 1
Answer 2 leads by 3 57% 43% 5
Answer 2 leads by 2 58% 42% 10
Answer 2 leads by 1 44% 56% 32
Even 37% 63% 58
Answer 1 leads by 1 52% 48% 105
Answer 1 leads by 2 39% 61% 65
Answer 1 leads by 3 38% 63% 38
Answer 1 leads by 4 77% 23% 11
Answer 1 leads by 5 62% 38% 11
Answer 1 leads by 6 83% 17% 4
Answer 1 leads by 7 50% 50% 4
Answer 1 leads by 8 50% 50% 2
Answer 1 leads by 9 33% 67% 1

Previous Answer: Answer 2

Balance Answer 1 Answer 2 Count
Start 62% 38% 75
Answer 2 leads by 9 67% 33% 1
Answer 2 leads by 8 50% 50% 2
Answer 2 leads by 7 25% 75% 2
Answer 2 leads by 6 25% 75% 2
Answer 2 leads by 5 40% 60% 3
Answer 2 leads by 4 56% 44% 7
Answer 2 leads by 3 46% 54% 24
Answer 2 leads by 2 55% 45% 47
Answer 2 leads by 1 61% 39% 90
Even 59% 41% 62
Answer 1 leads by 1 39% 61% 49
Answer 1 leads by 2 58% 42% 22
Answer 1 leads by 3 25% 75% 2
Answer 1 leads by 4 75% 25% 2
Answer 1 leads by 5 50% 50% 2
Answer 1 leads by 6 25% 75% 2
Answer 1 leads by 7 67% 33% 1